Impact of Trade Sanctions against Russia: Analysis using international input-output tables

Author Name ITO Koji (Consulting Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. September 2022 22-P-027
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Immediately after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the G7, the EU, and others imposed economic sanctions, including trade measures, against Russia. This paper used the OECD "Inter Country Input-Output Table" (ICIO) to analyze the impact of the trade sanctions against Russia on the production activities of each country.

If sanctions and countermeasures reduce trade between OECD member countries and Russia by 20%, Russian production will fall by 4.76%, mainly in the mining and petroleum and coal product manufacturing industries. This figure is close to the rate of decline in Russia's GDP during the chaotic period of the late 1990s, meaning that it will have a certain impact.

However, based on the actual trade trends after the sanction, we analyzed the case where only OECD countries cut their exports to Russia. In this case, even if exports decreased by 20%, Russia's production value would only decrease by 0.02%.

Based on the analysis in this paper, the trade sanctions seem to be largely ineffective in the current situation where Europe, Japan and other countries are accepting imports from Russia.