Population decline, structural change and economic growth

Author Name YOSHIKAWA Hiroshi (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) / ANDO Koichi (Chuo University)
Creation Date/NO. May 2019 19-J-033
Research Project Heterogeneity across Agents and Economic Growth
Download / Links


What generates economic growth in developed countries is the creation of new goods and services with high demand growth which changes the structure of the industry or sector. The previous article found that there is a positive correlation between economic growth and industry or sector structural changes.

In this article, the industry or sector is defined based on the "detail (4-digit code)" classification of the input-output tables, which better corresponds to products rather than industries The analysis by column classification data also confirmed that the positive correlation between growth rate and sector structural change is clearer in "detail" classification and is also seen in the 2000s. Furthermore, we also examined growth rates and industry or sector structural changes in the labor force, and found that the sectoral shift of the labor force has a mild positive correlation with the economic growth rate. The results of examining the relationship between the growth of the labor force and labor productivity and the growth of each sector every ten years indicate that the service sector will continue to be a leader in added value growth due to the progress of aging and shift of demand. On the other hand, it still holds true that the manufacturing industry will experience large increases in productivity.