Hearing the Voice of the Future: Trump vs Clinton

Author Name NARITA Yusuke (Visiting Fellow, RIETI)
Creation Date/NO. March 2019 19-E-025
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Many countries face growing concerns that population aging may make voting and policy-making myopic. This concern begs for electoral reform to better reflect voices of the youth, such as weighting votes by voters' life expectancy. This paper predicts the effect of the counterfactual electoral reform on the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Using the American National Election Studies (ANES) data, I find that Hillary Clinton would have won the election if votes were weighted by life expectancy. I also discuss limitations due to data issues.