Effects of a Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy Exit Strategy on East Asian Currencies

Author Name OGAWA Eiji  (Faculty Fellow, RIETI) /WANG Zhiqian  (Hitotsubashi University)
Creation Date/NO. March 2015 15-E-037
Research Project Research on Currency Baskets
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The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) of the United States has decided to end its quantitative easing monetary policy as the global financial crisis is subsiding there. It is expected that it will raise the federal funds (FF) rate from almost zero in the near future. Large amounts of money which flowed from the United States into emerging market countries are beginning to flow back to it. As a result, the emerging market countries are beginning to face depreciation of their home currencies and drops in stock prices. Based on this situation in the global economy, we consider the effects of changes in the monetary policy, especially the effects of raising the interest rates in the United States on East Asian currencies in this paper. Specifically, we use data on interest rates as a monetary policy instrument to investigate how changes in the interest rates in the United States affect interest rates, exchange rates, and capital flows in the East Asian emerging market countries. Given the analytical results, we conclude that East Asian countries would face capital outflows that depreciate their home currencies while having upward pressure against their own interest rates if the FRB adopts a quantitative easing monetary policy exit strategy and raises the interest rates.