|KAINOU Kazunari (Fellow, RIETI)
|April 2010 10-J-026
|Research and Development for Next Generation Energy Statistics and for Analytical Systems of Supply and Demand Trends
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Among present Japanese Greenhouse Gas Emission quantification methodologies, the methodology for Limestone and Dolomite origin carbon dioxide quantification is pointed out that there may be some duplication, oversight and over estimation due to the methodology mixes both industrial and technological classifications.
The author tried to verify and evaluate the present methodology developing new methodology applying estimation methodology used in Japanese General Energy Statistics with I/O table and industrial statistics' data and information, comparing the emission amount with present one by time series from 1990; the author quantified the total Limestone, Dolomite and their derivatives' end use side demand with non-equivalent price quantity I/O table by industrial sector classification, and re-classified them by technological classification whether carbon dioxide emission happens or not for each industrial sector.
As a result, the author found that present and new methodologies resulted in similar in 1990 base year, but after that they show unstable and large discrepancies. At the end the present methodology proved to be over estimate to the new methodology around one million metric tons of carbon dioxide in average from 2005 to 2007.
The author analyzed causes for such an unstable and large scale over estimation and found that present methodology double counted Limestone supply and Quicklime consumption produced by end-use side in iron and steel industry, and over sighted several Limestone and Dolomite uses for earthenware materials or discharge gas sulfur reduction. And the author found that those million tons of errors offset each other and resulted in such an over estimation.
The author recommends re-calculation to replace the present methodology after revising necessary statistics by cooperation with related organizations.