China's "Economic Security" Growth Model, Implications for the US-China Security Dilemma and Lesson for Other Major Players

Traditional conceptions of export-led or domestic investment-led growth no longer appropriately capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted an "economic security" growth model, where national security logic underpins economic policy. The presentation first outlines the main components of this growth model, namely: a dual circulation strategy for balancing between external and domestic demand; a domestic industrial strategy premised on self-reliant innovation; and a legal and regulatory toolkit for export controls to respond to perceived acts of economic coercion from abroad. It then outlines potential implementation challenges and distortions emerging from such a growth strategy and discusses the channels through which distortions might feed into misperceptions that deepen the US-China security dilemma.
Finally, the presentation concludes with some lessons and suggestions for other global supply chain players including Japan on how to weather the fallout coming from the implementation of the Chinese "economic security" growth model and the security dilemma caused thereby.