小黒 一正

小黒 一正顔写真

小黒 一正 OGURO Kazumasa

コンサルティングフェロー

法政大学経済学部教授

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RIETIでの活動

研究分野 主な関心領域

公共経済学

学歴

1997年 京都大学理学部卒業
2003年 京都大学大学院経済学研究科修士課程修了(経済学修士)
2010年 一橋大学大学院経済学研究科博士課程修了(経済学博士)

職歴

1997年 大蔵省(現財務省)入省(証券局、大臣官房文書課等)
2005年 財務省財務総合政策研究所主任研究官
2006年 - 2008年 埼玉大学経済学部非常勤講師
2008年 財団法人世界平和研究所研究員
2008年9月 - 経済産業研究所コンサルティングフェロー
2010年3月 - 2010年7月 財団法人世界平和研究所主任研究員
2010年8月 - 2013年3月 一橋大学経済研究所准教授
2013年4月 - 2015年3月 法政大学経済学部准教授
2015年4月 - 法政大学経済学部教授

主な著作物

著書

  • 『2025年、高齢者が難民になる日―― ケア・コンパクトシティという選択』(共著)日本経済新聞出版社, 2016.
  • 『非常時対応の社会科学―法学と経済学の共同の試み』(共著)有斐閣, 2016.
  • 『人口蒸発「5000万人国家」日本の衝撃──人口問題民間臨調 調査・報告書』(共著)新潮社, 2016
  • 『超高齢社会の介護制度―持続可能な制度構築と地域づくり』(共著)中央経済社, 2015.
  • 『財政危機の深層―増税・年金・赤字国債を問う』(単著)NHK出版新書, 2014.
  • 『人口動態と政策: 経済学的アプローチへの招待』(共著)日本評論社, 2013.
  • 『金融依存の経済はどこへ向かうのか―米欧金融危機の教訓』(共著)日本経済新聞出版社, 2013.
  • 『アベノミクスでも消費税は25%を超える』(単著)PHP研究所, 2013.
  • 『20歳からの社会科』日本経済新聞出版社, 2012.
  • 『日本破綻を防ぐ2つのプラン』(共著)日本経済新聞出版社, 2011.
  • 『Matlabによるマクロ経済モデル入門 少子高齢化経済分析の世代重複モデルアプローチ』(共著)日本評論社, 2011.
  • 『震災復興: 地震災害に強い社会・経済の構築』(共著)日本評論社, 2011.
  • 『3・11後 日本経済はこうなる!』(共著)朝日新聞出版, 2011.
  • 『2020年、日本が破綻する日』(単著)日本経済新聞出版社, 2010.
  • 『世代間格差ってなんだ』(共著)PHP研究所, 2010.
  • 『人口減少社会の社会保障制度改革の研究』(共著)中央経済社, 2008.
  • 『経済格差の研究』(共著)中央経済社, 2006.

論文(査読付き論文には*)

  • Kazumasa Oguro, "Challenges confronting Abenomics and Japanese public finance―Fiscal consolidation must start by squarely facing reality―," Public Policy Review, Vol.10, No.2, pp.301-318, 2014.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting," Economic Modelling, Volume 44, pp.252-265,2015.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, "Japanese vision on health care in 2035," The Lancet, Volume 385, Number 9987, pp.2549-2550, 2015.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, "Designing an Optimal Public Pension System," Australian Economic Papers, forthcoming, 2016.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro and Morohiro Sato, "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," Applied Economics, Volume 46, Issue 7, pp. 663-673, 2014.
  • Takashi Oshio and Kazumasa Oguro, "Fiscal Sustainability under an Aging Population in Japan: A financial market perspective," Public Policy Review, Vol.9, No.4, pp.735-750, 2013.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefits and Macroeconomics Simulation Analyses: An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Policy Review, Vol.9, No.4, pp.633-659, 2013.
  • 小黒一正・高畑純一郎「子育て支援とマクロ経済-人口内生OLGモデルの視点から-」フィナンシャル・レビュー115号, pp.53-72, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato, "Impact of Deflation on Real Interest rate of Government Bonds," The Economic Review, Vol 64, No.2, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefits and Welfare for Current and Future Generations: Simulation Analyses in an Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Volume 3, Issue 4, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa, Reiko Aoki and Takashi Oshio, "Demographic Change, Intergenerational Altruism, and Fiscal Policy - A Political Economy Approach -," Studies in Applied Economics, Volume 6, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata, "Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy," Applied Economics, Volume 45, Issue 17, 2012.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata, and Manabu Shimasawa, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," Modern Economy, Volume 2, No. 4, 2011.
  • * 佐藤主光・小黒一正「首都直下地震がマクロ経済に及ぼす影響についての分析」『経済分析』 第184号, 2011.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, "Japan's Looming Financial Collapse," Asia-Pacific Review, Volume 17, Issue 2, 2010.
  • * 小黒一正「対外直接投資と法人税に関する実証分析」『季刊政策分析』第6巻第3・4 合併号, 2010.
  • * Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, Volume 24, Issue 4, 2010.
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "The Impacts of Global Recession on the World Economy: An Investigation with a Multi-country Overlapping Generations Simulation Model," Financial Markets and the Global Recession, Nova science Publishers, Inc, 2010.
  • * 小黒一正「人口減少の罠は脱出できるか?-人口転換論(Demographic Transition Theory)を中心に-」『経済政策ジャーナル』第7巻第1号, 2010.
  • * 小黒一正「人口減少経済における世代間移転と資本蓄積-世代間公平の視点から-」『経済政策ジャーナル』第6巻第1号, 2009.
  • * 小黒一正「ギャンブルとしての財政赤字に関する一考察-“不確実性”のある成長率と長期金利の関係を中心に-」『日本経済研究』No.60, 2009.
  • * 小黒一正「社会保障の「世代間格差」とその解決策としての「世代間の負担平準化」」『季刊社会保障研究』第44巻第2号, 2008.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Shoichiro Yuyama, "A study on Fiscal Deficit and Declining Birthrate - From the Viewpoint of "Children as a Social Security Revenue Source"," Financial Review, No.88, 2008.
  • 小黒一正「財政赤字と少子化に関する一考察-「社会保障財源としての子供」の視点から」『フィナンシャル・レビュー』88号, 2008.
  • 小黒一正「世代間格差改善のための医療保険制度モデル私案とその可能性-賦課方式と積立方式の補完的導入-」『フィナンシャル・レビュー』85号, 2006.

Recent Discussion Paper

  • 「サプライチェーンと金融制約を織り込んだ震災モデルの構築及び分析」ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.324, 2015.
  • "Population Density, Fertility, and Childcare Services from the Perspective of a Two-Region Overlapping Generations Model," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 15-E-093, 2015.
  • "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.649, 2015.
  • 「太平洋戦争の終戦前及び直後のシニョリッジ推計の試み」財務省財務総合政策研究所 Discussion Paper Series No.15A-1, 2015.
  • "Fiscal Reform and Improved Earthquake Insurance Claims-paying Capacity: Can the Two Coexist? ―Attempting to reconcile heightened earthquake risk with sound fiscal policy―," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.643, 2015.
  • 「太平洋戦争の終戦前及び直後のシニョリッジ推計の試み」Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.641, 2015.
  • 「人口減少・超高齢化を乗り切るための地域包括ケア・コンパクトシティ構想- 財政の視点から -」Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.629, 2014.
  • "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Discussion Paper Series No.14A-04, 2014.
  • Manabu Shimasawa, Kazumasa Oguro and Minoru Masujima, "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.625, May 2014.
  • Manabu Shimasawa, Kazumasa Oguro and Nao Toyoda, "Does Japan have a Gray Democracy? An empirical analysis of prefectural data," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.615, February 2014.
  • Takao Fujii, Fumiaki Hayashi, Jun Iritani and Kazumasa Oguro, "Designing an Optimal Public Pension System ," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.578, January 2013.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Ryo Ishida, "The Viability of a Voting System that Allocates Parliamentary Seats According to Life Expectancy: An analysis using OLG models ," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.571, October 2012.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato, "Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.537, Feb 2012.
  • Ryo Ishida, Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.533, Jan 2012.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato, "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.517, May 2011.
  • 小黒一正・島澤諭・高畑純一郎「子育て支援と世代間効用-人口内生OLGモデルの視点から-」 ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.255, December 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa, Reiko Aoki and Takashi Oshio, "Demographic Change, Intergenerational Altruism, and Fiscal Policy-A Political Economy Approach-," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.493, November 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata, "Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.482, August 2010.
  • 佐藤主光・小黒一正「首都直下地震がマクロ経済に及ぼす影響についての分析」 ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.239, July 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata, "Educational Support and Individual Ability with Endogenous Fertility," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 10-E-019, April 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata and Manabu Shimasawa, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Economics Program, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Papers on Demography and Policy #2009-003, September 2009.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata and Manabu Shimasawa, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," IPSS Discussion Paper Series 2009-E01, July 2009.
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 09-E-020, May 2009.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," Public Economics Program, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Papers on Demography and Policy #2009-001, April 2009.
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "Impact of Immigration on Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所編『平成20年度 社会保障モデルの評価・実用化事業 報告書』第9章, March 2009.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS) Policy Paper 339E, March 2009.

その他

日本経済学会
日本財政学会
日本経済政策学会
日本人口学会
政策分析ネットワーク