Health Capacity to Work and Its Long-term Trend among the Japanese Elderly

本研究は、厚生労働省「国民生活基礎調査」を用いて、日本の高齢者の健康面から見た就業率の上限（health capacity to work）―すなわち、健康状態から判断して高齢者がどこまで就業を増やせるか―を分析するとともに、1986年から2016年にかけての長期的傾向を調べた。具体的には、50歳台における健康状態と就業状態との間に観測される関係に基づき、60歳台及び70歳台前半における就業率の上限を推計した。試算結果によると、高齢者には就業を拡大させる余地がかなり存在するとともに、男性高齢者にとっては、パートタイム就業からフルタイム就業にシフトできる余地も幾分ある。さらに、本研究によると、過去30年間において高齢者が追加的に就業できる余地が拡大傾向にあることも分かった（ただし、健康状態によって完全な就業が困難な高齢者が存在し続けている点には注意が必要である）。以上の結果は、高齢者就業を拡大する政策の必要性を裏付けるものと言える。

This study examines the elderly health-based capacity to work—that is, how much longer the elderly can work judging by their health—and the long-term trend between 1986 and 2016 by using microdata obtained from the nation-wide, population-based survey, "Comprehensive Survey of the Living Conditions," which was conducted and released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of the Japanese Government. Based on the estimated relationship between health and work statuses among individuals in their 50s, this study simulated their capacity to continue working in their 60s and early 70s. The simulation results revealed a large additional work capacity among the elderly, as well as the possibility of some shift from part-time to full-time jobs among elderly males. This study further observed that this additional work capacity has increased over the past 30 years along with the improvement of health, although health conditions still prevent some individuals from working. Results underscore the need for policy measures that can allow for the utilization of the unexploited work capacity of the elderly.

Published: Oshio, Takashi, and Satoshi Shimizutani, 2019. "Health capacity to work and its long-term trend among the Japanese elderly," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol. 51, pp. 76-86
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158318301345