Pension Reform and Individual Retirement Accounts in Japan

本稿は、賦課方式に基づく公的年金制度の一部を個人年金勘定（IRA）へ移行する政策の影響を数量分析する。現行の年金制度を維持した場合、高齢化の進行に伴い政府支出は増加し、その増加額はピーク時で日本の総消費支出の40%余りに相当する。自己資金に基づくIRAへの移行により、総消費支出の20%に相当する政府支出の削減が可能となる。政策の変更により、老後に向けた個人貯蓄が大幅に増え資本が増加する。それにより賃金、総生産、消費が増加し中長期的な厚生改善が見込まれる。一方、新制度への移行方式次第で現役世代の厚生悪化が起こり得る。

The paper studies the effects of introducing individual retirement accounts (IRA) as an alternative to the employer-based, pay-as-you-go public pension system in Japan. Without any reform, the projected demographic transition implies a massive increase in government expenditures in the magnitude of 40% of total consumption expenditures at the peak. Gradually shifting the earnings-related part of pension towards self-financed IRA, expenditures can be reduced by 20% of total consumption, providing a major relief for the government budget. The reform generates a significant rise in capital, as individuals save more for retirement, which is invested over many years. As a result, wage, output, and consumption are also higher, leading to a sizeable welfare gain in the intermediate and long run. Current generations, however, can face a large welfare loss depending on how the transition is financed.