Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake

本論文では1995年の阪神大震災の企業への影響を分析する。近年のマクロ経済における災害の分析では、被災地域の経済成長に対して多くは正の効果あるいは若干の負の効果をもつとされる。しかし、空間的に局所的で甚大な被害を無視しているため、既存の議論は過剰評価と思われる。本論文では阪神大震災の局所的な効果を綿密に分析する。具体的には企業データのみならず、建物レベルの被災状況や建物の構造・特性、地震の揺れなどのデータ、町丁目レベルのデータを用いて、ミクロ計量経済の手法を駆使して分析する。分析の結果、大きな被害を被った企業ほど、地震後の生存確率を低下させ、また、雇用や利潤を低減させる。一方で、限定的にいわゆる災害の創造的効果もあるが、これは一時的で、時を経て消滅していくことが分かった。

This paper examines the impact of the 1995 Kobe earthquake on the survival of manufacturing plants and their post-earthquake economic performance. The evidence from macroeconomic studies of the impact of natural disasters on economic growth is mixed with some papers finding a small negative effect while others often finding a positive effect. However, the local effects of disasters are often overlooked. In this paper, we undertake a detailed study of the local effects of the Kobe earthquake. We employ a micro-econometric approach based on carefully geo-coded data on initial plant locations and a building-level survey to measure accurately the damage to the buildings where the plants were located. Including plant and building characteristics as well as district-level variables to control for spatial dependencies, our results show that the greater the level of damage a plant experienced, the lower was its probability of survival. Interestingly, this effect persists for some years, although it diminished over time. Further fixed-effects panel analysis shows evidence of falling total employment and value added associated with earthquake damage. However, we find some evidence of creative destruction with the average plant experiencing a short-run increase in productivity although this advantage disappeared over time.