Analysis of Alternative Fuel Vehicles by Disaggregated Cost Benefit

本研究では、費用便益分析を用いて、電気自動車（EV）と燃料電池自動車（FCV）の2つの車種を対象に、ガソリン自動車からの乗り換えが進んだ場合に必要となるコストと得られる便益を比較する。なお、普及目標台数はどちらも500万台とし、500万台に到達する年数を10年、50年、100年の3つのシナリオで分析している。本稿の分析結果の要点は次の通りである。(1)ガソリン価格やCO₂価格の上昇に伴いEVやFCVに乗り換えたことによる社会的な便益は向上する。(2)特にEVに関しては、中長期的に普及を進めることで社会的な便益がコストを上回る可能性が高い。(3)ただし、ガソリン価格やCO₂価格が現状の価格水準に留まるのであれば、自動車の購入費用が低下した場合でも、普及による社会的な便益はコストを下回る。

The future of both the automobile and the transportation industries has been of significant interest to many people. In this study, we investigate the economic validity of the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) and all-electric vehicles (EVs), comparing the benefit and cost for diffusion of alternative vehicles by employing cost-benefit analysis. We assume the amount of CO₂ and NOx emissions and gasoline use reduction as a benefit, by switching from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to alternative vehicles; and the purchase amount, infrastructure expenses, and maintenance of alternative vehicles as a cost. We obtained data from two alternative fuel vehicles from an interview with an automobile maker in Japan. Considering uncertainties, we conducted a sensitivity analysis of the cost-benefit ratios. The scenarios used are the following: the progress of alternative vehicle production, the increase in CO₂ abatement cost, the increase in the price of gasoline, and the target year for diffusion. In summary, the results show that the diffusion of FCVs will not be economically feasible until 2110, even if their purchase cost is decreased to that of an ICE vehicle. The diffusion of EVs might be possible by 2060 depending on the increase in gasoline prices and the CO₂ abatement costs.