亚洲面临的挑战

Political Discontinuity in Indonesia

Significant political and economic changes are unfolding across Southeast Asia, generating serious challenges. 9/11 and the war against Iraq have brought more attention to the most complex challenge of all: political Islam.

Southeast Asia Islam has traditionally been syncretic and moderate. The region's governments are secular. But globalization has heightened the impact of Islamic influences, particularly from South Asia and the Middle East. A greater religiosity is now evident throughout the region.

The highest stakes in this political Islam challenge are in Indonesia, which has the largest Muslim population in the world. The majority of Indonesian Muslims are tolerant. The conventional wisdom is that they are different from the intense and austere Wahhabis of the Middle East.

But this tolerant state of Islam in Indonesia is being challenged by a growing group of extremists who want to turn the country into an Islamic state.

This challenge began after Soeharto stepped down as President. The political system he had tightly controlled for more than three decades collapsed, and Indonesia suffered a discontinuity. This threw open the gates of power to groups who want to place Islam more prominently at the centre of the polity, and even as the basis of the Indonesian state. In the last general elections, the religious parties obtained less than 20% of the votes. But their influence in the political system is greater than these numbers suggest, and may increase with time. In fact, whatever their personal beliefs, in pursuit of their ambitions in the 2004 general elections, many Indonesian politicians now vie for the support of Islamic groups.

So must President Megawati, even though she is a committed secularist and believes firmly in a pluralistic Indonesia based on nationalism, not religion.

President Megawati has no illusions about the Muslim parties' attitude towards her. She has not forgotten how a coalition of Muslim parties denied her the Presidency in 1999, despite the fact that her political party won the largest number of popular votes in free elections. Hence, although she understands the dangers posed to Indonesia by extremist Islam, she must tread carefully whenever she has to move against Muslim militants.

Indeed, Indonesia initially took a passive role in the fight against terrorism. Some politicians even denied that terrorists existed in the country. It took a tragedy, the Bali bombings of October 2002, for them to acknowledge the problem, and for the government to take action against the terrorists.

I believe that President Megawati is committed to Indonesia's fight against terror.

But if the Indonesian state veers toward radical Islam, terrorists may again find a sympathetic environment there.

This will have severe consequences for Asia. A more radically Islamic Indonesia that sits astride strategic sea-lanes linking the Pacific and Indian Oceans will have profound implications for many countries, including Japan.