Uncertainty in Firms’ Medium-term Forecasts: Before and after the COVID-19 crisis

Based on an original survey of Japanese firms, this study presents evidence on firm-level uncertainty before, during, and after the COVID-19 crisis. A unique feature of the survey is that it investigates the macro and micro uncertainties faced by firms in the form of subjective confidence intervals for point forecasts. The results show that, first, the COVID-19 pandemic was a very large uncertainty shock, but its medium-term impact on expectations varies significantly across firms. Second, macroeconomic uncertainty and microeconomic uncertainty are positively correlated, but microeconomic uncertainty is strongly influenced by firm-specific factors. Third, macroeconomic uncertainty is lower for larger firms, but microeconomic uncertainty is unrelated to firm size. Fourth, younger firms have higher expected sales growth rates, but they also have higher subjective uncertainty. Fifth, the cross-sectional dispersion of point forecasts and the uncertainty measured as the subjective confidence intervals move differently, supporting the view that it is not appropriate to use the cross-sectional dispersion of forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty.