人口减少与区域的消失:应对之策
第七集 萎缩的日本——从地方和地方城市的角度看日本和东京的未来 通向可持续发展之路

作者 森知也(教职研究员)
发表日期/编号 2026年5月 26-P-009
研究课题 人口减少趋势下日本城市和地方的可持续性
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概要

Building on the analyses in the preceding stories, this study examines the long-run prospects for regional cities, regional economies, and the Tokyo metropolitan area under population decline, and discusses the challenges related to sustainability. Based on long-term projections of household numbers, age composition, and internal migration under the low-fertility, medium-mortality scenario, we show that the decline of regional cities and continued concentration into the Tokyo area are inevitable equilibrium outcomes. We discuss the social challenges that arise in this process, including the growth of elderly households, interregional labor reallocation, and structural changes in real estate markets.