EBPM(循证决策)入门:
第二章 效果验证的重要因素与随机对照试验

作者 关泽洋一(高级研究员)
发表日期/编号 2026年3月 26-P-005
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概要

  • There are two elements that are crucial to building reliable evidence: (1) the existence of comparable treatment and control groups, and (2) the availability of measurable outcomes.
  • In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), a simple coin toss can be used to assign units to treatment and control groups, thereby creating comparable groups.
  • In encouragement designs, which are one form of RCT, individuals who are eligible for the intervention are randomly divided into an encouragement group and a control group, and only the encouragement group is actively encouraged to take up the intervention.
  • In cluster RCTs, the unit of randomization is groups—such as classes, schools, or municipalities—so that one can implement RCTs even when individual-level randomization is difficult.
  • Familiarity with statistical terms such as statistical significance and 95% confidence intervals makes it easier to understand the results of impact evaluations.