| 作者 | 深尾京司（理事长），新井园枝（经济产业研究所）、板仓健（教职研究员）、北尾早雾（教职研究员）、中田大悟（高级研究员）、前田佐惠子（东京大学，内阁府）、松尾武将（顾问研究员），吉野彰浩（顾问研究员） |
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| 发表日期/编号 | 2025年10月 25-J-027 |
| 研究课题 | 东亚产业生产率 |
| 下载/链接 |
概要
To make projections on the industrial structure in 2040, we divided the Japanese economy into 100 industries and constructed a macroeconomic model that endogenizes factor and goods prices as well as the industrial structure. Using this model, we examined how the price system and industrial structure in 2040 would be determined under certain assumptions regarding the production structure and the endowments of labor and fixed capital stock, ensuring equilibrium in both factor and goods markets. The model parameters were estimated using the JIP Database 2023 and the GTAP model, and the analysis also took into account the impact of population aging on the savings rate and consumption structure.