验证补贴政策有效性的注意事项:以产品制造业补贴为例

作者 坂下史幸(东京大学)、角谷和彦(研究员(政策经济学家))、井上俊克(一桥大学)、桥本由纪(研究员(政策经济学家))
发表日期/编号 2022年5月 22-P-008
研究课题 EBPM的综合性研究
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概要

This paper provides a cautionary note on evaluating subsidy programs. Using data on applicants, we analyze the subsidy program for SMEs in Japan (the “Monozukuri Subsidy” program). When evaluating subsidy programs, researchers often use causal-inference methods such as regression discontinuity design that compares recipients with scores slightly higher than the threshold to non-recipients with scores slightly lower than the threshold. If researchers fail to consider the possibility that non-recipients may receive subsidies from the same program in the future, they will underestimate its effects. We find that in the Monozukuri Subsidy program of FY2015, non-recipients near the threshold had a higher probability of receiving the subsidy in the future than recipients near the threshold. This result indicates that researchers should be aware of this point when evaluating subsidy programs. We discuss several ways to cope with this problem.