Sources and Impacts of Uncertainty and Firms’ Responses in Japanese Manufacturing: Evidence from the firm survey on uncertainty and the digital economy

In recent years, heightened geopolitical tensions and rapid progress in the digital economy have substantially increased uncertainty within firms’ business environments. Understanding how firms perceive such uncertainty, how it affects their activities, and how they respond is crucial for designing effective economic and industrial policies. This paper presents an overview and basic analysis of the Firm Survey on Uncertainty and the Digital Economy, conducted by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) between July and September 2025, focusing on Japanese manufacturing firms. The survey provides detailed information on firms’ perceptions of uncertainty and its impacts on business operations, the extent of digitalization in firms, including the use of artificial intelligence and robots, and their responses to changes in the global economic environment, such as adjustments to tariff policies. By documenting the current situation faced by Japanese manufacturing firms, this study offers policy-relevant insights into how firms cope with uncertainty in an era of rapid digital transformation.