| Author Name | LI Anqi (Jinan University) / MARUYAMA Shiko (University of Osaka) / ZHANG Yangyang (Jinan University) |
|---|---|
| Creation Date/NO. | January 2026 26-E-001 |
| Research Project | Economic Analysis on the problem of an aging population and a declining birthrate in China and Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic |
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Abstract
In 2016, China's Universal Two-Child Policy ended the decades-long One-Child Policy. Fertility rose through 2017 and then fell, fueling claims that the reform's effects were transitory. Using the China Family Panel Studies and province-year exemption histories since the 1980s, we reconstruct couple-year second-child eligibility and estimate its causal effect. Eligibility raises the second-birth probability by 7.1 percentage points, with effects persisting for at least a decade. Counterfactual simulations imply that relaxations lifted the TFR level but left its secular downward slope largely intact, highlighting the distinction between a temporary spike, an upward level shift, and a genuine reversal of decline.
