The Effect of Import Shocks on Internal Migration in Japan

This study analyzes the effect of import shocks from China on population movement within and across regional employment zones in Japan based on Japanese census data from the 1990s to the 2010s. This effect was estimated for eight population groups defined by combinations of age and gender: the total population, and those aged 15–29, 30–44, and 45–59 by age group, and males and females by gender. Increases in imports from China had no significant effect on population movements within commuting zones or on net outflows from zones, but they significantly reduced both inflows to and outflows from zones, suggesting that import shocks tend to suppress inter-regional migration. The effect was observed across all age groups and for both men and women. Estimates indicate that regional differences in import shocks lowered both inflow and outflow rates. The magnitude was generally moderate compared with the actual ratios, but inflow migration of young women was relatively strongly suppressed.