小黑 一正

小黑 一正顔写真

小黑 一正 OGURO Kazumasa

顾问研究员

法政大学经济系教授

在RIETI的活动

研究领域

公共经济学

学历

1997年 京都大学理学系毕业
2003年 京都大学研究生院经济学研究科硕士课程毕业(硕士:经济学)
2010年 一桥大学研究生院经济学研究科博士课程毕业 (博士:经济学)

工作简历

1997年 进入大藏省(现财务省)(证券局、大臣官房文书课等)工作
2005年 财务省财务综合政策研究所主任研究官
2006年-2008年 埼玉大学经济系兼职讲师
2008年 财团法人世界和平研究所研究员
2008年9月- 经济产业研究所顾问研究员
2010年3月-2010年7月 财团法人世界和平研究所主任研究员
2010年8月-2013年3月 一桥大学经济研究所副教授
2013年4月-2015年3月 法政大学经济系副教授
2015年4月- 法政大学经济系教授

主要著作

著书

  • 烧田党、细江守纪、薮田雅弘、长冈贞男(2021.9) 《新冠疫情的政策课题与分析》(合著)日本评论社
  • 小黑一正(2021.3) 《人口动态变化与财政、社会保障的制度设计》(合著)日本评论社
  • 小黑一正(2020.3) 《日本经济的重建》 日本经济新闻出版社
  • 神野真敏、安冈匡也编(2020.4) 《用历史与理论思考日本的经济政策》(合著)中央经济社
  • 保井美树、全劳济协会(互联生活研究会)编(2019.10) 《孤立的城市,联通的市井》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 山崎史郎、小黑一正编(2018.12) 《如何实现地方振兴 始于2020年的新规划》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 小黑一正、菅原琢磨(2018.7) 《药价的经济学》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 小林庆一郎编(2018.4) 《金融危机后 危机的情况分析》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 麻生良文、小黑一正、铃木将觉(2018.1) 《财政学15讲(图书馆经济学15讲4)》(合著)新世社
  • Yoichi Funabashi(ed.)(2017.12)"Japan’s Population Implosion: The 50 Million Shock,"(Joint Work) Palgrave Macmillan
  • 金子宏监修(2107.6) 《现代租税法讲座 地二卷 家族与社会》(合著)日本评论社
  • 加藤创太、小林庆一郎编(2017.3) 《财政与民主主义 民粹主义会引发债务危机吗?》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 小黑一正(2016.10) 《为存款封锁做准备——负利率之后的危机》朝日新闻出版
  • 小黑一正编(2016.9) 《2025年,老龄人群成为难民之日——护理服务紧凑型城市这一选择》(合著) 日本经济新闻社
  • 斋藤诚、野田博编(2016.3) 《应对紧急情况的社会科学——法律与经济学的共同尝试》(合著)有斐阁
  • 加藤久和、财务省财务综合政策研究所编(2015.12) 《超老龄社会护理制度——可持续制度的构建与地方建设》(合著)中央经济社
  • 日本复兴Initiative编(2015.6) 《人口蒸发“5000万人国家”日本的冲击—人口问题民间临时调查·报告书》(合著)新潮社。
  • 小黑一正(2014.12) 《财政危机的深层—增税·年金·赤字国债》(单著)、NHK出版新书。
  • 山重慎二、加藤久和、小黑一正(2013.9) 《人口动态和政策:从经济学方法入手》(合著)日本评论社
  • 池尾和人、21世纪政策研究所编(2013.7) 《依靠金融的经济将走向何处—美欧金融危机的教训》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 小黑一正(2013.6) 《安倍经济学 消费税超过25%》PHP研究所
  • 明治大学代际政策研究所编(2012.3) 《从20岁开始的社会学科》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 小黑一正、小林庆一郎(2100.11) 《防止日本经济崩溃的两个蓝图》(合著)日本经济新闻出版社
  • 小黑一正、岛泽谕(2011.9) 《Matlab的宏观经济模型入门 低生育率老龄化的代际重复手法》(合著)日本评论社
  • 佐藤主光、小黑一正(2011.9) 《震灾复兴:构建能对抗地震灾害的社会·经济》(合著)日本评论社
  • 池田信夫、小黑一正、泽昭裕、村上宪郎、小幡绩(2011.6) 《3·11后 日本经济的走向》(合著)朝日新闻出版
  • 小黑一正(2010.8) 《2020年、日本经济崩溃之日》日本经济新闻出版社
  • 城繁幸、小黑一正(2010.6) 《代际差距到底是什么》(共著)PHP研究所
  • 贝冢启明、财务省财务综合政策研究所(2008.12) 《人口减少社会的社会保障制度改革的研究》(合著)中央经济社
  • 贝冢启明、财务省财务综合政策研究所(2006.12) 《经济差距的研究》(合著)中央经济社

论文(经专家评审的论文注有*)

  • 小黑一正(2021.3) “年金作为安全保障网功能的的意义——关于2019年财政验证与TFP增长率的评估” 《社会保障研究》第5卷第4期第pp.489-501
  • *Tokuda, Shibuya and Oguro(2021.1) "Priority of SARS‐CoV‐2 test, trace, and isolation in Japan", Journal General and Family Medicine, Volume 22(1), pp.1-2
  • *Ishida and Oguro(2018.9)"The Viability of a Voting System That Allocates Parliamentary Seats According to Life Expectancy: An Analysis Using OLG Models", Japan and The World Economy, Volume 47, pp.51-57
  • *Ishida, Oguro and Yasuoka(2018.3)"Population Density, Fertility, and Childcare Services from the Perspective of a Two-Region Overlapping Generations Model", Economic Analysis and Policy, Volume 59, pp.29-39
  • Oguro, Hiraizumi, Owen, and Guo(2017.8)"Fiscal Reform and Improved Earthquake Insurance Claims-paying Capacity: Can the Two Coexist? ―Attempting to reconcile heightened earthquake risk with sound fiscal policy―", KEIZAI-SHIRIN(The Hosei University Economic Review), Vol.85, No.1, pp.23-52
  • 小黑一正、平方启介(2017.6) “有关人口超老龄化下的护理设施配置以及GIS(地理信息系统)利用的研究——以新泻市为例”《财政评论》131号,pp.49-70
  • *Fujii, Hayashi, Iritani and Oguro(2017.3)"Designing an Optimal Public Pension System", Australian Economic Papers, Volume 56, pp.1-24
  • *Hattori and Oguro(2016.9)"An Endeavor to Estimate Seigniorage Before the End of and Immediately After the Pacific War", Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, Volume 41, pp.1-16
  • *Shibuya and Oguro et al.(2015.6)"Japanese vision on health care in 2035", The Lancet, Volume 385, Number 9987, pp.2549-2550 (※ The Lancet为世界五大医学杂志之一)
  • *Ishida, Oguro and Takahata(2015.1)"Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting", Economic Modelling, Volume 44, pp.252-265
  • Oguro(2014.7), "Challenges confronting Abenomics and Japanese public finance―Fiscal consolidation must start by squarely facing reality―," Public Policy Review, Vol.10, No.2, pp.301-318
  • * Oguro and Sato(2014.1), "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," Applied Economics, Volume 46, Issue 7, pp. 663-673
  • Oshio and Oguro(2013.9), "Fiscal Sustainability under an Aging Population in Japan: A financial market perspective," Public Policy Review, Vol.9, No.4, pp.735-750
  • Oguro and Takahata(2013.9), "Child Benefits and Macroeconomics Simulation Analyses: An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Policy Review, Vol.9, No.4, pp.633-659
  • 小黑一正、高畑纯一郎(2013.6)“育儿支援和宏观经济——从人口内生OLG模型的视点来看”《财政评论》115号,pp.53-72
  • * Oguro and Sato(2013.4), "Impact of Deflation on Real Interest rate of Government Bonds," The Economic Review, Vol 64, No.2, pp.147-159
  • *Oguro, Shimasawa and Takahata(2013.3), "Child Benefits and Welfare for Current and Future Generations: Simulation Analyses in an Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Volume 3, Issue 4,pp.490-511
  • * Oguro, Shimasawa, Aoki and Oshio(2013.2), "Demographic Change, Intergenerational Altruism, and Fiscal Policy - A Political Economy Approach -," Studies in Applied Economics, Volume 6, pp.1-15
  • 小黑一正(2012.12)“社会保障税一体化改革是改革的“一个里程碑”——快速增长的政府债务、低利率是否会持续?“众议院调查局RESEARCH BUREAU 论究 第九号,pp.62-74
  • *Oguro, Oshio and Takahata(2012.4)"Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy", Applied Economics, Volume 45, Issue 17, pp.2469-2479
  • *Oguro, Takahata and Shimasawa(2011.9)"Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility", Modern Economy, Volume 2, No.4, pp.602-613
  • 小黑一正(2011.5)“育儿支援的财源选择与代际效用——基于人口内生OLG模式的视角” 季刊《个人金融》vol6,No.1,pp.50-63
  • *佐藤主光、小黑一正(2011.1) “首都直下型地震对宏观经济的影响”《经济分析》第184号,pp.122-139
  • 小黑一正(2011.1)“代际利他主义和财政负担:是否能够改善代际差距?——从政治经济学的角度来看” 季刊《个人金融》vol5,No.4,pp.44-55
  • Oguro(2010.11) "Japan's Looming Financial Collapse," Asia-Pacific Review, Volume 17, Issue 2,pp.118-138
  • *小黑一正(2010.10) “对外直接投资和有关法人税的实证分析”《季刊政策分析》第6卷第3、4合并号,pp.19-30
  • *Shimasawa and Oguro(2010.12), "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, Volume 24, Issue 4, pp.586-602
  • * Shimasawa and Oguro(2010.6), "The Impacts of Global Recession on the World Economy: An Investigation with a Multi-country Overlapping Generations Simulation Model," Financial Markets and the Global Recession, Nova science Publishers, Inc, pp.31-56
  • *小黑一正(2010.3) “能逃离人口减少的陷阱吗?—以人口转换论(Demographic Transition Theory)为中心”《经济政策杂志》第7卷第1号,pp.2-17
  • *小黑一正(2009.3) “人口减少中代际转移与资本储蓄——从代际公平的观点来看”《经济政策杂志》第6卷第1号,pp.16-36
  • *小黑一正(2009.1) “对作为投机的财政赤字的考察——以‘不确定’的增长率与长期利率的关系为中心” 《日本经济研究》No.60,pp.19-35
  • Oguro and Yuyama(2008.12), "A study on Fiscal Deficit and Declining Birthrate - From the Viewpoint of "Children as a Social Security Revenue Source", Public Policy Review, Vol.4, No.1, pp.53-76
  • *小黑一正(2008.9)“社会保障的‘代际差距’及其解决方法的‘代际负担平均化’” 季刊《社会保障研究》第44卷第2号,pp.224-233
  • 小黑一正(2008.3) “对财政赤字与低生育率的考察——‘作为社会保障财源的儿童’的观点” 《财政评论》第88号,pp.115-133
  • 小黑一正(2006.9)“为改善代际差距的医疗保险制度模型方案及其可行性——引进赋课税方式与预留积金方式的互补”《财政评论》第85号,pp.151-176

Discussion Paper

  • Oguro, Ishida and Yasuoka(2020.3)"Data Sharing and Revenue Distribution Rule", RIETI Discussion Paper Series 20-E-015
  • Oguro, Ishida and Yasuoka(2018.11)"Voluntary Provision of Public Goods and Cryptocurrency", RIETI Discussion Paper Series 18-E-081
  • Ishida and Oguro(2017.5)"Borda Count Method for Fiscal Policy- A Political Economic Analysis", 财务省财务综合研究所 Discussion Paper Series No.17A-07
  • 佐藤、小黑(2015.12)“供应链与金融制约相互交织的震灾模型的构筑与分析” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.324
  • Ishida, Oguro and Yasuoka(2015.7)"Population Density, Fertility, and Childcare Services from the Perspective of a Two-Region Overlapping Generations Model", RIETI Discussion Paper Series 15-E-093
  • Yasuoka and Oguro(2015.7)"Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy", Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.649
  • 小黑、服部(2015.12)“对太平洋战争结束前后的铸币税推算的尝试”财务省财务综合政策研究所Discussion Paper Series No.15A-1
  • Oguro, Hiraizumi, Owen, and Guo(2015.4)"Fiscal Reform and Improved Earthquake Insurance Claims-paying Capacity: Can the Two Coexist? ―Attempting to reconcile heightened earthquake risk with sound fiscal policy―", Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.643
  • 小黑一正(2014.8)“太平洋战争结束前后的铸币税推算的尝试”Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.641
  • 小黑一正(2014.8)“为解决人口减少和超老龄化问题,建设地区综合紧凑型城市——从财政的角度出发” Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.629
  • Shimasawa, Oguro and Masujima(2014.6) "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," 财务省财务综合政策研究所, Discussion Paper Series No.14A-04
  • Shimasawa, Oguro and Masujima(2014.5) "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.625
  • Shimasawa, Oguro and Toyoda(2014.2) "Does Japan have a Gray Democracy? An empirical analysis of prefectural data," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.615
  • Fujii, Hayashi, Iritani and Oguro(2013.1), "Designing an Optimal Public Pension System ," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.578
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Ryo Ishida(2012.10) "The Viability of a Voting System that Allocates Parliamentary Seats According to Life Expectancy: An analysis using OLG models ," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.571
  • 小黑、石田(2012.7)“有关‘余生投票方式’的转移可能性的考察” Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.562
  • 藤井、林、入谷、小黑(2012.6) “最佳年金的理论” Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.558
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato(2012.2) "Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.537
  • Ryo Ishida, Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata(2012.1) "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.533
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato(2011.5) "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.517
  • 小黑一正、岛泽谕、高畑纯一郎(2010.12) “育儿支援与代际效用——基于人口内生OLG模型的视角” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.255
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa, Reiko Aoki and Takashi Oshio(2010.11) "Demographic Change, Intergenerational Altruism, and Fiscal Policy-A Political Economy Approach-," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.493
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata(2010.8) "Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.482
  • 佐藤主光、小黑一正(2010.7)“首都直下型地震对宏观经济的影响” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.239
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata(2010.4) "Educational Support and Individual Ability with Endogenous Fertility," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 10-E-019
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata and Manabu Shimasawa(2009.9) "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Economics Program, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Papers on Demography and Policy #2009-003
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata and Manabu Shimasawa(2009.7) "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," IPSS(国立社会保障与人口问题研究所) Discussion Paper Series 2009-E01
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro(2009.5) "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 09-E-020
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata(2009.4) "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," Public Economics Program, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Papers on Demography and Policy #2009-001
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata(2009.3) "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS) Policy Paper 339E
  • 小黑、渡部(2008.7)“1999 奖学金制度改革及后续效果分析”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.08A-3
  • 小黑(2007.12)“能逃离人口减少的陷阱吗?—以人口转换论(Demographic Transition Theory)为中心”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-18
  • 石田、小黑(2007.12)“地方政府财务报表分析 从公平的角度分析都道府县的资产负债表”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-17
  • 小黑、中轻米、高间(2007.11)“地震保险的支付能力改善提案”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-16
  • 小黑、高间(2007.10) “人口减少经济中代际转移与资本储蓄——从代际公平的观点来看” ,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-14
  • 小黑等(2007.4) “社会保障的‘代际差距’及其解决方法的‘代际负担平均化’——以在护理保险中补充性引进‘预留账户’”, 财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-5
  • 林、小黑等(2007.1) “单一国家的分权改革——法国、意大利、英国的改革与财政规则”, 财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-2
  • 平泉、小黑、中轻米(2007.1) “英国政府部门推进的设施管理的改善活动”, 财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.07A-1
  • 小黑(2006.1)“对作为投机的财政赤字的考察——以‘不确定’的增长率与长期利率的关系为中心”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.06A-29
  • 小黑、冈(2006.6)“海关的恐怖袭击对策” 财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.06A-25
  • 平泉、小黑、森、中轻米(2006.5)“地震保险改善提案——协调不断增加地震风险与财政之间的关系”, 财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.06A-14
  • 小黑(2006.4) “财政赤字与出生率下降问题研究——从‘作为社会保障财源的儿童’的角度讨论”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.06A-11
  • 小黑、森下(2006.1) “为改善代际差距的医疗保险制度模型方案及其可行性——不局限于
  • 赋课税方式与预留积金方式”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.06A-02
  • 小黑(2005.10)“在迎来人口减少社会之际的一点思考”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.05A-22
  • 小黑、长岛(2005.9)“物价联动贷款模型的导出及其相关实证研究”,财务省财务综合政策研究所,Discussion Paper Series No.05A-17

其他

  • 日本经济学会
  • 日本财政学会
  • 日本经济政策学会
  • 日本人口学会
  • 政策分析网络