小黑 一正

小黑 一正顔写真

小黑 一正 OGURO Kazumasa

顾问研究员

法政大学经济系教授

在RIETI的活动

研究领域

公共经济学

学历

1997年  京都大学理学系毕业
2003年  京都大学研究生院经济学研究科硕士课程毕业(硕士:经济学)
2010年  一桥大学研究生院经济学研究科博士课程毕业 (博士:经济学)

工作简历

1997   进入大藏省(现财务省)(证券局、大臣官房文书课等)工作
2005   财务省财务综合政策研究所主任研究官
2006-2008 埼玉大学经济系兼职讲师
2008   财团法人世界和平研究所研究员
2008年9月- 经济产业研究所顾问研究员
2010年3月-2010年7月 财团法人世界和平研究所主任研究员
2010年8月-2013年3月 一桥大学经济研究所副教授
2013年4月-2015年3月 法政大学经济系副教授
2015年4月- 法政大学经济系教授

主要著作

著书

  • 《2025年,老龄人群成为难民之日——护理服务紧凑型城市这一选择》(合著) 日本经济新闻社,2016
  • 《应对紧急情况的社会科学——法律与经济学的共同尝试》(合著)有斐阁,2016
  • 《人口蒸发“5000万人国家”日本的冲击—人口问题民间临时调查·报告书》日本再建Initiative编(2015、6)(合著)新潮社。
  • 《超老龄社会的护理制度——可持续制度的建立与地方建设》(合著)中央经济社,2015
  • 《财政危机的深层—增税·年金·赤字国债》(单著)、NHK出版新书。
  • 《人口动态和政策:从经济学方法入手》(共著)日本评论社,2013。
  • 《依靠金融的经济将走向何处—美欧金融危机的教训》(共著)日本经济新闻出版社,2013。
  • 《安倍经济学 消费税超过25%》(单著)PHP研究所,2013。
  • 《从20岁开始的社会学科》日本经济新闻出版社,2012。
  • 《防止日本经济崩溃的两个蓝图》(共著)日本经济新闻出版社,2011。
  • 《Matlab的宏观经济模型入门 低生育率老龄化的代际重复手法》(共著)日本评论社,2011。
  • 《震灾复兴:构建能对抗地震灾害的社会·经济》(共著)日本评论社,2011。
  • 《3·11后 日本经济的走向》(单著)朝日新闻出版,2011。
  • 《2020年、日本经济崩溃之日》(单著)日本及经济新闻出版社,2010。
  • 《代际差距到底是什么》(共著)PHP研究所,2010。
  • 《人口减少社会的社会保障制度改革的研究》(共著)中央经济社,2008。
  • 《经济差距的研究》(共著)中央经济社,2006。

论文(审查论文为*)

  • Kazumasa Oguro, "Challenges confronting Abenomics and Japanese public finance―Fiscal consolidation must start by squarely facing reality―," Public Policy Review, Vol.10, No.2, pp.301-318, 2014.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting," Economic Modelling, Volume 44, pp.252-265,2015.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, "Japanese vision on health care in 2035," The Lancet, Volume 385, Number 9987, pp.2549-2550, 2015.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, "Designing an Optimal Public Pension System," Australian Economic Papers, forthcoming, 2016.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro and Morohiro Sato, "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," Applied Economics, Volume 46, Issue 7, pp. 663-673, 2014.
  • Takashi Oshio and Kazumasa Oguro, "Fiscal Sustainability under an Aging Population in Japan: A financial market perspective," Public Policy Review, Vol.9, No.4, pp.735-750, 2013.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefits and Macroeconomics Simulation Analyses: An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Policy Review, Vol.9, No.4, pp.633-659, 2013.
  • 小黑一正、高畑纯一郎“育儿支援和宏观经济—从人口内生OLG模型的视点来看”《财政评论》115号,pp.53-72,2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato, "Impact of Deflation on Real Interest rate of Government Bonds," The Economic Review, Vol 64, No.2, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefits and Welfare for Current and Future Generations: Simulation Analyses in an Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Volume 3, Issue 4, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa, Reiko Aoki and Takashi Oshio, "Demographic Change, Intergenerational Altruism, and Fiscal Policy - A Political Economy Approach -," Studies in Applied Economics, Volume 6, 2013.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata, "Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy," Applied Economics, Volume 45, Issue 17, 2012.
  • * Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata, and Manabu Shimasawa, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," Modern Economy, Volume 2, No. 4, 2011.
  • * 佐藤主光、小黑一正“首都直下地震对宏观经济的影响”《经济分析》第184号,2011。
  • Kazumasa Oguro, "Japan's Looming Financial Collapse," Asia-Pacific Review, Volume 17, Issue 2, 2010.
  • * 小黑一正“对外直接投资和有关法人税的实证分析”《季刊政策分析》第6卷第3、4合并号、2010。
  • * Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, Volume 24, Issue 4, 2010.
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "The Impacts of Global Recession on the World Economy: An Investigation with a Multi-country Overlapping Generations Simulation Model," Financial Markets and the Global Recession, Nova science Publishers, Inc, 2010.
  • * 小黑一正“能摆脱人口减少的怪圈吗?—以人口转换论(Demographic Transition Theory)为中心”《经济政策杂志》第7卷第1号,2010。
  • * 小黑一正“人口减少中的代际过度和资本储蓄—世代间公平的观点”《经济政策杂志》第6卷第1号,2009。
  • * 小黑一正 “对作为投机的财政赤字的考察——以‘不确定’的增长率与长期利率的关系为中心” 《日本经济研究》No.60,2009。
  • * 小黑一正“社会保障的‘代际差距’及其解决方法的‘代际负担平均化’” 《季刊社会保障研究》第44卷第2期,2008。
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Shoichiro Yuyama, "A study on Fiscal Deficit and Declining Birthrate - From the Viewpoint of "Children as a Social Security Revenue Source"," Financial Review, No.88, 2008.
  • 小黑一正 “对财政赤字与低生育率的考察——‘作为社会保障财源的儿童’的观点” 《财政评论》第88期,2008年
  • 小黑一正“为改善代际差距的医疗保险制度模式方案及其可行性——赋课税方式与公积金方式的互补引进” 《财政评论》第85期,2006年。

Recent Discussion Paper

  • “供应链与金融制约相互交织的震灾模型的构筑与分析” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.324,2015.
  • "Population Density, Fertility, and Childcare Services from the Perspective of a Two-Region Overlapping Generations Model," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 15-E-093, 2015.
  • "Public Education, Pension and Debt Policy," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.649, 2015.
  • “对太平洋战争结束前后的铸币税推算的尝试”财务省财务综合政策研究所Discussion Paper Series No.15A-1,2015.
  • "Fiscal Reform and Improved Earthquake Insurance Claims-paying Capacity: Can the Two Coexist? ―Attempting to reconcile heightened earthquake risk with sound fiscal policy―," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.643, 2015.
  • 太平洋战争结束前后的铸币税推算的尝试”Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.641,2015.
  • “为解决人口减少和超老龄化问题,建设地区综合紧凑型城市——从财政的角度出发” Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.629,2014.
  • "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Discussion Paper Series No.14A-04, 2014.
  • Manabu Shimasawa, Kazumasa Oguro and Minoru Masujima, "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.625, May 2014.
  • Manabu Shimasawa, Kazumasa Oguro and Nao Toyoda, "Does Japan have a Gray Democracy? An empirical analysis of prefectural data," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.615, February 2014.
  • Takao Fujii, Fumiaki Hayashi, Jun Iritani and Kazumasa Oguro, "Designing an Optimal Public Pension System ," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.578, January 2013.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Ryo Ishida, "The Viability of a Voting System that Allocates Parliamentary Seats According to Life Expectancy: An analysis using OLG models ," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.571, October 2012.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato, "Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.537, Feb 2012.
  • Ryo Ishida, Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.533, Jan 2012.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Motohiro Sato, "Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.517, May 2011.
  • 小黑一正、岛泽谕、高畑纯一郎“育儿支援和代际间效应—人口内生OLG模型的观点” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.255, December 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Manabu Shimasawa, Reiko Aoki and Takashi Oshio, "Demographic Change, Intergenerational Altruism, and Fiscal Policy-A Political Economy Approach-," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.493, November 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata, "Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy," Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Paper Series No.482, August 2010.
  • 佐藤主光、小黑一正“首都直下地震对宏观经济的影响” ESRI Discussion Paper Series No.239, July 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Takashi Oshio and Junichiro Takahata, "Educational Support and Individual Ability with Endogenous Fertility," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 10-E-019, April 2010.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata and Manabu Shimasawa, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Economics Program, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Papers on Demography and Policy #2009-003, September 2009.
  • Kazumasa Oguro, Junichiro Takahata and Manabu Shimasawa, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," IPSS Discussion Paper Series 2009-E01, July 2009.
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "The Impact of Immigration on the Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," RIETI Discussion Paper Series 09-E-020, May 2009.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," Public Economics Program, School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University, Discussion Papers on Demography and Policy #2009-001, April 2009.
  • Manabu Shimasawa and Kazumasa Oguro, "Impact of Immigration on Japanese Economy: A Multi-Country Simulation Model", 国立社会保障·人口问题研究所编《2008年度 社会保障模型的评价·实用化事业 报告书》第9章,March 2009.
  • Kazumasa Oguro and Junichiro Takahata, "Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility," Institute for International Policy Studies (IIPS) Policy Paper 339E, March 2009.

其他

  • 日本经济学会
  • 日本财政学会
  • 日本经济政策学会
  • 日本人口学会
  • 政策分析网络