魔鬼藏在“子目”之中——欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）针对进口商品按品类及国别征收的碳成本估算及其对贸易的影响

This paper estimates the carbon costs of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for representative country–product combinations, using the European Commission's country- and product-specific default emissions intensity values. Whereas previous studies analyzed CBAM at the level of 5–30 aggregated sectors, the default values are specified for many goods at the eight-digit subheading level of the EU's Combined Nomenclature (CN), enabling highly granular cost estimates. The analysis shows that CBAM's impact varies greatly by country–product combination: some combinations are likely to alter trade flows, while for many products the impact is negligible. For iron and steel, trade effects should be assessed jointly with anti-dumping duties, safeguards, and sanctions against Russia. Exporting countries can reduce the burden by reporting actual emissions where default values overstate them, by directing output from lower-emission domestic processes to EU exports, and by exporting processed products rather than basic materials.