THORBECKE, Willem

THORBECKE, Willem

THORBECKE, Willem

Senior Fellow

Activities at RIETI

Expertise

Monetary Economics, Financial Economics, International Economics

Research Projects

Education

1988 Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley
1985-86 Visiting Scholar, Yale University
1982 B.A. Cornell University

Experience

1988-2009 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, George Mason University
Visiting Scholar Positions: ADB-Institute, Tokyo, Japan; Levy Economics Institute, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York; Social Security Administration, Washington, DC; Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT.

Selected Publications and Papers

Published Papers
"Are Chinese Imports Sensitive to Exchange Rate Changes?" China Economic Policy Review, 1, 2012, 1-15, (with Gordon Smith).
"Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia," forthcoming in Sarah Tong, ed., Trade, Investment, and Economic Integration in Asia, Singapore: World Scientific Publishing (with Nimesh Salike).
"Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Transpacific Rebalancing," forthcoming in Barry Bosworth and Masahiro Kawai, eds., Trans-Pacific Rebalancing, Washington: Brookings Institution Press (with Ginalyn Komoto).
"Promoting Learning and Industrial Upgrading in ASEAN Countries," forthcoming in Willem Thorbecke and Wen-Jen Hsieh, eds., Industrial Restructuring in Asia: Implications of the Global Economic Crisis, New Delhi: Sage Publications (with Mario Lamberte and Ginalyn Komoto).
"Introduction," forthcoming in Willem Thorbecke and Wen-Jen Hsieh, eds., Industrial Restructuring in Asia: Implications of the Global Economic Crisis, New Delhi: Sage Publications (with Wen-Jen Hsieh and Atsuyuki Kato).
"East Asian Supply Chains and Relative Prices: A Survey of the Evidence," forthcoming in Susanna Leung, ed., The Renminbi's Changing Status and the Chinese and Hong Kong Financial Systems, London: Sweet & Maxwell.
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," Japan and the World Economy, 24, 2012, 64-71, (with Atsuyuki Kato).
"An Empirical Analysis of East Asian Computer Exports," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 16, 2011, 644-652.
"How Elastic is East Asian Demand for Consumption Goods," Review of International Economics, 19, 2011, 950-962.
"Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Processed Exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 25, 2011, 33-46.
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," Journal of International Commerce, Economics, and Policy, 2, 2011, 85-102.
"The Appropriate Policy Mix for China," in Masahisa Fujita and Ryuhei Wakasugi, eds., Keizai no Gurobaruka to Kokusai Senryaku (Economic Globalization and International Strategy) , 2011, Tokyo, Nippon Hyoron Sha (in Japanese).
"Review of Daisuke Hiratsuka and Yoko Uchida, ‘Input Trade and Production Networks in East Asia,'" Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 25, 2011, 181-182.
"An Empirical Analysis of ASEAN's Labor-intensive Exports," Journal of Asian Economics, 21, 2010, 505-513.
"How Would an Appreciation of the RMB and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?" Review of International Economics, 18, 2010, 95-108, (with Gordon Smith).
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on China's Labor-Intensive Manufacturing Exports," Pacific Economic Review, 14, 2009, 389-409, (with Hanjiang Zhang).
"Monetary Policy Surprises and Long-Term Interest Rates: Choosing between the Inflation-Revelation and Excess Sensitivity Hypotheses," Southern Economic Journal, 75, 2009, 1114-1122, (with Hanjiang Zhang).
"Global Imbalances, Triangular Trading Patterns, and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 22, 2008, 503-517.
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the Electronics Industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 22, 2008, 535-544.
"The Plaza Accord," in Ramkishen S. Rajan and Ken Reinert, eds., The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, 2008, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
"The Twin Deficits," in Ramkishen S. Rajan and Ken Reinert, eds., The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, 2008, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
"The Louvre Accord," in Ramkishen S. Rajan and Ken Reinert, eds., The Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, 2008, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
"East Asia's Role in Resolving the New Global Imbalances," in Jan Joost Teunissen and Age Akkerman, eds., Global Imbalances and Developing Countries: Improving the Global Financial System, 2008, The Hague, The Netherlands, Fondad, (with Masaru Yoshitomi and Li-Gang Liu).
"Trade Interdependence and Exchange Rate Coordination in Asia," Ramkishen S. Rajan, Shandre M. Thangavelu, and Rasyad A. Parinduri, eds., Monetary, Exchange Rate and Financial Issues and Policies in Asia, 2008, Singapore, World Scientific Press.
"How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?" The B.E. Journal in Macroeconomics: 6, 2006: No. 3, Article 3.
"The Effects of Monetary Policy on Bank Lending in Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, 15, 2005, 931-934, (with Ahmet Sengonul).
"The Effects of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Shocks on Bank Lending in Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, 52, 2004, 279-295 (with Iwan Azis).
"Institutions of Trade Protection," in Charles Rowley and Friedrich Schneider, eds., The Encyclopedia of Public Choice, 2004, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
"U.S. Structural Change: Macroeconomic Policy Issues," in Alan Rugman and Gavin Boyd, eds., Alliance Capitalism for the New American Economy, 2003, Aldershot, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers, (with Ahmet Tiryaki).
"The Socio-economic Impact of the Asian Financial Crisis on Indonesia," in Mohammed Ikhsan, Chris Manning, and Hadi Soesastro, eds., Ekonomi Indonesia di Era Politik Baru (Indonesian Economics in the New Political Era) 2003, Jakarta: Kompas, (with Iwan Azis and Erik Thorbecke).
"Budget Deficits, Inflation Risk, and Asset Prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, August 2002, 539-553.
"Did NAFTA Cause a Giant Sucking Sound?," Journal of Labor Research, 23, Fall 2002, 649-660, (with Christian Eigen-Zucchi).
"A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, 2002: 28: 255-268.
"European Macroeconomic Policy Interdependencies," in Thomas L. Brewer, Paul Brenton, and Gavin Boyd, eds., Globalizing Europe, 2002, Aldershot, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers, (with Christian Eigen-Zucchi).
"Estimating the Effects of Disinflationary Monetary Policy on Minorities," Journal of Policy Modeling, 2001, 23: 51-66.
"Monetary Policy, Time-Varying Risk, and the Bond Market Debacle of 1994," Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 2000, 22: 159-174.
"A Public Choice Perspective on the Globalizing of America," in Thomas L. Brewer and Gavin Boyd, eds., Globalizing America: The USA in World Integration, 2000, Aldershot, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers.
"Thoughts on the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997, 11: 228-229.
"On Monetary Policy and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, June 1997, 52: 635-654.
"Explaining House Voting on the North American Free Trade Agreement," Public Choice, 1997, 92: 231-242.
"Why Good Economic News Depressed Stock and Bond Prices in 1996," Economics Letters, July 1997, 54: 255-260, (with Lee Coppock).
"Choosing Free Trade Without Amending the U.S. Constitution," Public Choice, 1997, 90: 185-200.
"Monetary Policy, Stock Returns, and the Role of Credit in the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Southern Economic Journal, April 1996, 62: 989-1001 (with Lee Coppock).
"Congressional Influences over Decision Making at the International Trade Commission: 1980-1990," in José Casas Pardo and Friedrich Schneider, eds., Current Issues in Public Choice, 1996, Aldershot, UK: Edward Elgar Publishers (with Charles Rowley).
"Free Trade versus Managed Trade, A Constitutional Political Economy Perspective," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, June 1995, 151: 373-389.
"Nonfarm Employment and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Economics Letters, 1995, 47: 193-198 (with Geoff Chisholm).
"Trade Deficit News, Systematic Risk and the Crash of 1987," The Eastern Economic Journal, Winter 1994, 20: 97-106.
"Check Bouncing and Fiscal Irresponsibility: Evidence of Nonideological Shirking by Legislators," Public Choice, April 1994, 83: 59-64, (with Sarah Matzelevich).
"The Effect of Changes in the Federal Funds Rate on Stock Prices in the 1970s," The Journal of Economics and Business, February 1994, 46: 13-20, (with Tarik Alami).
"Rent Seeking and the Costs of Protectionism," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1993, 7: 213-215.
"The Budget Deficit and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Economics Letters, March 1993, 41:313-317 (with Tony Caporale).
"Why Deficit News Affects Interest Rates," The Journal of Policy Modeling, February 1993, 15: 1-12.
"The Role of the Congress and the Executive in US Trade Policy Determination: A Public Choice Analysis," in M. Hilf and E.U. Petersmann, eds., National Constitutions and International Economic Law, 1993, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers (with Charles Rowley).
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Evidence that Monetary Policy Matters," Journal of Macroeconomics Fall 1992, 14: 731-744, (with Tarik Alami).
"Social Security Investment Policy and Capital Formation," Contemporary Policy Issues, July 1992, 10: 26-38.


Blog Entries
"Does the renminbi matter? Evidence from China’s disaggregated processed exports," VoxEU, January 29, 2012
"Time for the PRC to stop buying US Treasuries and start investing in its people," Asia Pathways, ADIB, January 12, 2012
"What Rebalancing," Project Syndicate, September 5, 2011
"East Asian Exchange Rates and China's Trade Surplus," Econbrowser, November 8, 2010
"The effect of a renminbi appreciation on US-China trade imbalances," VoxEU, October 6, 2010
"Will abandoning the dollar peg help China rebalance its economy?" VoxEU, July 6, 2010
"East Asian Production Networks, Global Imbalances, and Exchange Rate Coordination," Econbrowser, October 19, 2009


Books
Post-Crisis Development Paradigms in Asia, Tokyo: ADB-I Publishing, 2003 (with Masaru Yoshitomi, Iwan Azis, and ADB-I Staff).
Trade Protection in the United States, London: Edward Elgar Publishers, 1995 (with Charles Rowley and Richard Wagner).


Working Papers
"The Contribution of the Yen Appreciation since 2007 to the Japanese Economic Debacle," CEPII Working Paper Number 2012-31.
"The Role of Production Networks in Sustaining and Rebalancing Asia's Growth," CESifo Working Paper Number 3896.
"Transpacific Imbalances and Macroeconomic Codependency," ADBI Working Paper Number 299, 2011.
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," ADBI Working Paper Number 298, 2011, (with Atsuyuki Kato)
"Understanding FDI in East Asia," ADBI Working Paper Number 290, 2011, (with Nimesh Salike).
"Promoting Learning and Industrial Upgrading in ASEAN Countries," ADBI Working Paper Number 250, 2010.
"How Would an Appreciation of the Yuan Affect the People's Republic of China's Surplus in Processing Trade?" ADBI Working Paper Number 219, 2010.
"Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on the People's Republic of China's Processed Exports" ADBI Working Paper Number 202, 2010.
"An Empirical Analysis of ASEAN's Labor-Intensive Exports" ADBI Working Paper Number 166, 2009.
"An Empirical Analysis of East Asian Computer Exports" ADBI Working Paper Number 160, 2009.
"Can East Asia be an Engine of Growth for the World Economy?" RIETI Discussion Paper 09-E-006, 2009.
"The Appropriate Policy Mix for China," RIETI Report 101, 2008.
"How Would an Appreciation of the RMB Affect China's Trade Balance?," RIETI Column 0156, 2007.
"Trade-FDI-Technology Linkages in East Asia," Network of East Asian Think Tanks Final Report, 2006, (with Masaru Yoshitomi).
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade in East Asia," RIETI Discussion Paper Number 06-E-009, 2006.