RIETI Report July 25, 2025

The Great Trade Hack: How Trump's trade war fails and global trade moves on

Dear Readers,

Welcome to RIETI Report. This bi-weekly newsletter will keep you updated with the recent columns, event information and research results by RIETI fellows and other leading economists in Japan and around the world.

In this edition, we are featuring topics related to the challenges and prospects for the global trade order. Once again, President Trump has unsettled the international community by sending tariff letters to about a dozen countries including Japan. At his recent RIETI BBL Seminar, our Non-Resident Fellow, Professor Richard Baldwin, argued that Trump’s policy is not grounded in economic logic, but rather in a “Grievance Doctrine,” highlighting key considerations for world leaders on maintaining the global trade order.

We hope you will enjoy it. If you have any feedback, we would love to hear from you (news-info@rieti.go.jp).
Editors of RIETI Report (Facebook: @en.RIETI / X: @RIETIenglish / URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/)

Featured Event Summary

The Great Trade Hack: How Trump's trade war fails and global trade moves on

Speaker: Richard BALDWIN (Non-Resident Fellow, RIETI / Professor of International Economics, IMD Lausanne)
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To read the full text / watch the videos:
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/25060601.html
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The book "The Great Trade Hack - Why Trump's Trade War Fails, and the World Moves On" emerged from urgent analysis of historically significant events affecting the global trading system. Written quickly to remain timely, it aims to address widespread misunderstanding about current developments of Trump’s trade policies and their implications. The analysis focuses primarily on future scenarios, recognizing that while the future remains unknowable, conversations among experts across different domains can improve preparedness and understanding.

The April 2nd tariffs, or Trump's “Great Trade Hack,” represent a pivotal moment when America ceased leading the world trading system - a date comparable to other historic turning points that future generations will study. The term "hack" reflects Trump's approach: bypassing established procedures, short-circuiting rules, and brute-forcing solutions through massive, globally simultaneous tariffs. These actions represent not a traditional trade war but a comprehensive assault on the trading system itself.

Related Articles

"US misuse of tariff reciprocity and what the world should do about it"
Richard BALDWIN (Non-Resident Fellow, RIETI) / Giorgio Barba NAVARETTI (Scientific Director at Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano / Professor of Economics at University Of Milan)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/v01_0225.html

"Strategic Response from Japan Could Help Save Global Trade"
ARMSTRONG, Shiro (Non-Resident Fellow, RIETI)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/shiro-armstrong/20.html

"What Is the Role of the Global South in Times of Turmoil?"
Rizal SUKMA (Senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)) / Neha GUPTA (International trade expert, and visiting fellow at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)) / KIMURA Fukunari (Consulting Fellow, RIETI) / TOYODA Masakazu (President of the Institute of Development Economies, JETRO (IDE-JETRO), and professor emeritus at Keio University in Japan)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/kimura-fukunari/06.html

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ITO Tadashi (Gakushuin University)
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/25070002.html

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NAKATOMI Michitaka (Consulting Fellow, RIETI)
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https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/24120013.html

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https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/act_dp.html
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https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/symposium.html
List of Upcoming and Past BBL Seminars:
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