This month's featured article
Demography and the Japanese Economy
YOSHIKAWA HiroshiSenior Advisor and Faculty Fellow, RIETI
Population problem of Japan
The relationships between the population, economy, and society of a country or region are diverse. There have been many times in history when the size of population was said to be too large. Prewar Japan was considered to be overpopulated, which was one of the factors that drove the country to colonize a region then known as Manchuria. From a global perspective, we are now in a state of overpopulation, and the United Nations acknowledges it as a global challenge. Thus, we must first recognize that population decline is a problem unique to advanced countries.
On that basis, I would like to move on to discussing the situation in Japan. Population projections over the next 100 years through the early 22nd century have been made available. Under the medium fertility scenario, Japan's population is projected to decrease to about 40 million by the early 22nd century. However, as this scenario is quite optimistic and the low fertility scenario is more realistic, there is a good possibility that Japan's population will fall below 40 million. It is a tremendous challenge for any society to lose two-thirds of its population in the span of 100 years without massive deaths caused by war or other extraordinary events.
Population decline is the biggest problem facing the economy and society of Japan. So, I am in support of the government's efforts to implement proactive measures to address the problem of population decline and low fertility. In particular, it is an undeniable reality that many young couples want to have children but are unable to do so because the current social environment is far from supportive, and there is significant room to improve the situation.
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http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/16092901.html
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