This project aims to define and establish macro prudential policy though model construction and simulation on big economic data, especially the Credit Risk Database (CRD) financial data of small-to-medium enterprises and trade network data owned by RIETI.
Macroeconomic phenomenon are caused by interaction between multitudes of heterogeneous economic agents, which yields co-movements. Among them are business cycles and chain bankruptcy. Thus, establishment of macro prudential policy required for detection and dealing with economic crisis requires detection of these co-movements and modeling of their dynamics. On the other hand, a number of economic agents such as the firms included in the big economics data, with which Japan is fortunate to possess unlike any other country, exceed a million per year. This leads to unique results which no other country can produce. With this in mind, our project will co-operate with K computer of RIKEN AICS in order to utilize huge computational resources and carry out large calculations unheard of so far.
Through these, this research project will produce an evidence-based quantitative definition of macro prudential policy, through which we will establish monitoring of macro-economic situations, evaluation of policies based on it, and simulation of the economy under various external shocks, thereby yielding policy proposals.
June 30, 2016 - May 31, 2018