Hidden Exposure: Measuring U.S. supply chain reliance

Supply chain disruptions, previously relegated to specialized journals, now appear in G7 Leaders’ Communiqués.
This talk looks at three core elements of the problems: measurement of the links that expose supply chains to disruptions, the nature of the shocks that cause the disruptions, and the criteria for policy to mitigate the impact of disruptions. Utilizing global input-output data, we show that US exposure to foreign suppliers, and particularly to China, is ‘hidden’ in the sense that it is much larger than what conventional trade data suggest. We argue that many recent shocks to supply chains have been systemic rather than idiosyncratic. Moreover, systemic shocks are likely to arise from climate change, geoeconomic tensions, and digital disruptions. Our principal policy conclusion is that concerns regarding supply chain disruptions, and policies to address them, should focus on individual products, rather than the whole manufacturing sector."
The talk is based on a BPEA paper presented 28 September 2023, co-authored with Rebecca Freeman (Bank of England) and Angelos Theodorakopoulos (Aston Business School).