Prospects for the Doha Round -Major Challenges in the Multilateral Trading System and their Implications for Japan-

YOSHITOMI Masaru, President and Chief Research Officer of RIETI, spoke on the theme of the Symposium, the importance of the issues, and the topics of each session.

Why must we again ask what the major challenges are in the multilateral trading system and what their implications are for Japan? Behind this question lies the fact that the WTO's ongoing Doha Round of trade negotiations is deadlocked. Some attribute the standstill in the round to the increasing number of negotiations on regional free trade agreements. An essential question, however, is whether freer multilateral trade and regional trade liberalization are incompatible in principle. It is therefore necessary to consider how to promote multilateral and regional trade liberalization at the same time. This is a critical item on the agenda. Some of the other fundamental problems that make WTO negotiations difficult are the complexity of the decision-making mechanism of the WTO, which now has 148 member countries; the relationship between development and liberalization under the WTO; alleviating the fears of people in certain domestic sectors who are worried that freer trade might do them harm; and determining the mechanisms of global governance, including the role of NGOs in the 21st century. The WTO system thus has a great number of difficult problems to solve.

The first session will address some of the challenges the WTO system is facing, including the compatibility of regional and multilateral trade liberalization, which will be analyzed by economists. Professor Jota Ishikawa will speak on basic theories concerning "profits through freer trade," rules of origin, which some regard as one of the greatest problems with FTAs and other issues. In the second session, Professor Akira Kotera, an expert on international law, will give a presentation on the WTO's dispute settlement process. He will discuss criticism of the system's effectiveness, legitimacy and fairness. The third session is an analysis of the political processes related to trade and the Doha Round in the United States. Professor I.M. Destler will give a presentation on changes in the forces driving negotiations on multilateral free trade agreements with the United States and other issues. In the fourth session, Professor Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a political scientist specializing in international politics, will give a presentation on the WTO and global governance. He will speak on liberalization and income disparity, the efforts of NGOs to solve environment and labor problems, intellectual property matters, and other issues. In the last session, the presenters at the four sessions will hold a panel discussion to consider all the issues discussed during the Symposium.

KOTERA Akira, Faculty Fellow, RIETI/Professor, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of Tokyo, explained the outline and purpose of the Symposium.

Negotiations for the current WTO round are at a deadlock. Nevertheless, the deadlock does not necessarily undermine the significance of the GATT/WTO system. This can be easily understood if we recall the role that the GATT/WTO regime has played in relation to global economic growth and the fact that no previous GATT/WTO round has gone smoothly, due to confrontations between liberalism and protectionism.

On the other hand, it is undeniable that conditions surrounding the WTO have changed significantly in three ways. First, as the term "Doha Development Agenda" itself clearly implies, there is a strong emphasis on development and on addressing the concerns of developing countries. The new round has created a confrontation between the United States, the EU and other developed countries on the one hand and developing nations such as India and Brazil on the other. Second, NGOs are taking part, not only through the domestic policymaking processes but also directly in the international negotiation processes, in cooperation and sometimes in confrontation with the developing countries. They have achieved greater influence on the course of the negotiations than they had in the past. Thirdly, the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs), including free trade agreements (FTAs), has been increasing. As a result, some have argued the WTO is emasculating the principle of multilateralism.

Given these circumstances, which aspects of the WTO should be fostered through this round and which should be addressed as challenges? By answering this question, examining what basic positions Japan and other countries should take with respect to a new round is an important purpose of this Symposium.