|Author Name||KAINOU Kazunari (Fellow, RIETI)|
|Creation Date/NO.||February 2017 17-J-003|
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This paper attempts a quantitative analysis for the so-called "rumor-based economic damage" of agricultural, forestry and fishery products caused by the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Reactor Accident in March 2011 in Japan, and proposes new quantitative measurement methodologies that enable determination of whether the damage has ended or is continuing by an application of average treatment effect related methodologies in econometrics using official wholesale prices and volume statistics of the Tokyo metropolitan central wholesale market and so on. This paper also tries to clarify the status of the damage for agricultural, forestry and fishery products from Fukushima and nearby prefectures by applying the quantitative measurement methodologies and proposes necessary policy changes based on the analysis on the issues found through the quantitative analysis.
This paper shows and concludes that most of the so-called "rumor-based economic damage" of agricultural, forestry and fishery products from Fukushima and nearby prefectures have already ended, after the quantitative analysis that statistically tests significant drops of relative wholesale price and quantity comparing data before and after the accident, applying relative sales share index time-series analysis and relative price vector auto regression analysis and so on for 10 typical radioactive safety regulated products such as fish and rice and 14 products that already removed radioactive safety regulation after the accident or that have not been an object of such regulation from the beginning from five prefectures including Fukushima.
This paper further inspects and considers typical unusual phenomena found through the above quantitative analysis by products and producing districts such as regional difference of the damage by rice-producing districts or difference of the damage by beef products, and proposes necessary policy changes in order to terminate the effect of the damage as soon as possible.